Why is it that the answer after the fact is always right?
How is it that what might have seemed obvious is always obvious after the fact?
And explain the phenomenon of winning the war after the battle is lost…
Some call it 20/20 hindsight – that unique talent for looking at history and predicting the outcome.
In the United States it’s often called the Monday morning quarterback (a U.S. football reference) – the amazing ability to call every play in a game the right way…but the morning after.
In life I’d call it passing the buck – the comforting notion that you can, with impunity, comment, analyze and pontificate as an expert on any subject as you watch the issue fly by to land, often with a sickening thud, elsewhere.
Look at the news any day. See what I mean?
Look around your work environment – I’m sure you can spot it.
Look around your circle and I bet it exists.
It’s the pundits who knew that the Japanese reactors were a disaster waiting to happen. It’s our colleagues who knew the account was in danger. It’s our friends who knew the relationship wasn’t meant to be.
Now – to be fair – there are prophets out there. Not the kind in long robes with wild hair (although the hair part is sometimes true…), but people who think, look ahead, analyze, have no personal agenda (think politicians) and who have the courage, or better, the integrity to speak up and out.
So there were those who made the case for Japan, and by the way, for the world, and were often dismissed as fringe players. And there are those who speak up in business before they are silenced by the forces of short-term profit. And, yes, we have all had that friend who tried to save us from ourselves and whom we no doubt dismissed as being jealous or not personally loyal.
However, we usually realize how right they were only when the “historians” jump in and loudly rehash the issue, object, problem, and ride the waves of awareness, disappointment, fear and anger.
Clearly the events of the past few weeks, and even months, have been on my mind and in my posts – the “surprise” events in the Middle East (including the ever-evolving surprise outcomes), Japan, my own business life and friends’ personal problems….
And when I saw the following thought, the source talked to me. Listen:
“In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” Warren Buffett
Known as “the Prophet of Omaha,” Buffet is always looking forward. He takes responsibility; he learns and moves on; his integrity is real and his values are basic.
I read this as “life” and I read it as an admonition not unlike those from the prophets of old.
Think about it. Maybe we need to turn on the wipers full speed…and always…What do you think?
Wipers will not help if you don’t know what you are looking for! Perhaps slowing them down to listen and really look will surprise you more. Yes the rear view is always so much clearer.
You cannot avoid hard decisions, stay in your comfort zone, and believe that you have the answer to everything or there will be no room for growth. Beautiful mistakes will happen and you will learn from them. Others will always have the answers or claim they could do a better job… after the fact. But you’ve done your part– you believed in yourself and with confidence you took a leap of faith.
Slowing down and proceeding with caution when the storm is raging is good advice too. But when a decision needs to be made and time is against you— faith is key. Yes, hind sight is still 20/20.
Interesting piece on NPR about teaching US Intelligence to use open sources like Google Trend and how, in hindsight, they might have seen the revolution in Egypt coming.
http://www.npr.org/2011/03/25/134666365/a-new-tool-for-u-s-intelligence-google
I think it stands to reason that any driver (physically and metaphorically speaking) who spends too much time staring into the rearview mirror is not focused on the road ahead and therein lies the problem. The experienced driver will glance in the rearview when needed while keeping an eye on the course ahead, allowing for a much more productive (and safer) journey.
My fear in plowing full speed ahead with the wipers always blazing is this – we limit the learning from the rearview mirror which should be a part of our forward journey. An important part of who we are resides in where we have been. The challenge is to not lose our focus.
If we never look back we may never come to the realization that perhaps the reason we can’t see clearly out our own windshield is due to the defroster and not the wipers at all.
Importnat points — all — looking back to learn is always key — looking back and not ahead is disaster
To continue the metaphor…”Someday we’ll look back on this moment and plow into a parked car.” (Evan Davis, The Economist)
We are in the world where ‘ignorance is bliss’.It is about time that we as an individual/leader/businessmen start following our sixth sense, have faith in ourselves and go by gut feel!! I think turn on the wiper and full speed…
I think what will make us great drivers is to keep our windshield constantly clean, while having a look in the rearview mirror every now and again, and watching out for those oh-so-important-warning posts – steering our course based upon all of these.
We can’t learn from the future and we can’t change the past—
Possibility that this is all about a deeply flawed human characteristic called “willful blindness”– in which we let “love, ideology, fear and impulse to obey and conform” get in the way of reacting to our instincts?
check out NY Times book review:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/03/business/03shelf.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=red%20flags&st=cse