Archive for the ‘Trends’ Category

Monday, February 13th, 2012

Amazon? Google? Who Would Have Thunk?

Who would have thunk….

Google is going to have a physical bricks-and-mortar – old-fashioned – GPS-findable – swipe- your-credit-card-or-pay-cash – salespeople to help you – store!

IMAGINE THAT!!!!

What are they going to sell?

Check out the Google online store to get an idea.  The top 10 items?  Chotchkes!!!!  Baby bibs and T-shirts!  And as you can see by the map – there doesn’t even seem to be a regional or local skew!  HMMMMMMM.

Now to be fair – they also had a small retail presence selling Chrome laptops — the Chromebook – not particularly successful, but they made a go of it.

Apple Stores need no big introduction – if you haven’t been in one, you should.  Great service – open 24/7 – like the Web – and a great place to play and demo.

Microsoft has also entered the fray – and although nascent by comparison to Apple – their retail empire is expanding.

eBay has also joined the game – and there is a thriving business of eBay drop-off stores that provide services to prospective sellers. …and by the way…they’ve also started advertising…god for bid…on TV.

And now Amazon – already big in mail – a powerhouse in cloud – is also looking to own the avenue….

What does this all mean? Is digital losing steam? Can it be that as Facebook goes public the rest of the world regresses?

In my view? It’s all very simple….

Digital is everything – but not everything is digital.  I will repeat that – digital is everything – but not everything is digital.

We place orders for food online and have it delivered to our office or home; we order clothing online and wear it…in real time; we buy movie tickets – movie tickets! – with our mobile devices and actually sit in theaters munching popcorn with the masses; we stream or save or otherwise access video content and view it on all sorts of screens – God forbid we mistake that for TV; we check for purchase information online – we check price and inventory live in our neighborhoods – and then buy the stuff and carry it home; and on and on and on….

Meanwhile Wal-Mart is trying to figure out how to sell through digital channels

Digital is everything – makes no difference today what we do, what we buy, what we want, what we believe – it all has some digital component – some digital foundation or infrastructure – some digital building blocks….

But here is the thing – not everything is digital.  We don’t eat digital or wear digital; digital doesn’t replace sitting around a big screen during a championship game with your buds; digital buying isn’t the same as being face-to-face with a fashion expert as you try on new clothing; and who cares if you call it TV – just give me my favorite show to watch.  Analysts and other so- called experts take note…please.

In my view the world is now really getting exciting – Wal-Mart moves toward Amazon moving toward Wal-Mart and Barnes and Noble, as Apple moves toward Best Buy who is moving toward Amazon – you get the picture.

Meanwhile you and I can still go to the movies….

So what’s it all about?

Listen?

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”
Charles Darwin

(FYI – I used this same quote almost four years ago…when the financial system was turned at its core …take a look…rules are always changing…)

Take note, all – it’s not the one that says all is changing – it’s the one that is the most adaptable to change – big difference.

Personally? Now it’s really getting interesting….

What do you think?

Posted by David on 02/13 at 04:41 PM
Monday, January 30th, 2012

Driverless Cars

So the story goes….

In 1895, or so, there were only two cars in Ohio and they managed to hit head on….

Maybe it was Illinois….

Truth is I heard this story when I was younger – could never find its source – assume it’s apocryphal – but maybe it has a point….

Looks like Google’s driverless cars had their first accident – now – is the story apocryphal? Judge for yourself – but I figure that it’s only a matter of time anyway.

Cars are the new iPads. Ford uses the Consumer Electronic Show, in Las Vegas, to showcase and introduce its latest and greatest, and let me tell you their technology is amazing.

Some Fords can park themselves; have radar for your blind spots; use voice control and on and on. Critical to them, by the way, is that everything they do allows you to have 2 hands on the wheel – always.

But that is for now. The ultimate driving experience will be when we sit back – enjoy the technology – probably mostly speaking and texting – in one form or another while the car drives itself. And, when you look at Ford and BMW and others, there is no doubt we are on the way – despite the 2-hand limitation of today.

Legislation in the US already allows driverless cars on the roads – in some states – and more will follow.

There is also a new legal expertise being developed – who do you sue in case of an accident? How do you insure? Can a cop pull you over? Sounds trivial but think about it…

Seems to me the real question though is the loss of human skill and intervention. Look – clearly – we haven’t done that great a job – too many people still die in needless car accidents – usually because of human fault – drunkenness, negligence, tiredness, whatever…

But here is a scenario – the GPS satellites that “drive” the cars get hacked – what happens? Frankly the possible outcomes are too scary to think about.

Bottom line – it will come when it does – and no doubt there will be glitches and accidents and sadly deaths – make no mistake…

But my issue isn’t with fear of the technology – it’s the fear of losing touch – the human element that while not perfect…is exactly why it’s so perfect and in my opinion never actually duplicable.

It’s my total worship of Sully and Flight 1549 – no computer could have saved those people – and it’s my admiration for the Waldorf Schools and the insight that the Tech Elite have in sending their kids there.

And I love what one of the kids had to say:

“Besides, if you learn to write on paper, you can still write if water spills on the computer or the power goes out.”
Finn Heilig, 10, whose father works at Google

One day we will be passengers in a High Tech cocoon interacting not with the road but with the environment – at least until we have teleports…

However…listen

“Computers are magnificent tools for the realization of our dreams, but no machine can replace the human spark of spirit, compassion, love, and understanding.”
Louis Gerstner

Now I’m pushing it – I know – but maybe not – many people are emotionally attached to their cars…LOL…but that wasn’t my point.

As we get more and more dependent on computers doing our work – let’s never lose sight of the humanity in anything…

I write this from Berlin – where today I toured the Holocaust Museum and kept wondering how much greater the horror would have been had they had computers…..

Never lose sight…..

What do you think?

 

 

Posted by David on 01/30 at 05:48 PM
Monday, October 24th, 2011

The Pen is Mightier than the Sword

The pen is mightier than the sword – but does the iPad conquer all?

Truth is I might have said yes. But wait…

In fact I have been talking a lot about the latest toddler move – the horizontal hand swipe. I’m sure many of you have seen it – my 2-year-old grandson is a black belt at it. They know how to turn on an iPad, activate apps and use them. They can find movies and little videos their parents (and grandparents, as the case may be) have saved for them and in general entertain themselves for hours at a time.

Good, no?

The fully digital generation – born swiping from the womb.

What an opportunity!!!! Think of the learning potential!!! Think of the educational opportunities!!! Think what they might accomplish….

Truth is I really believed it. Always did – from the earliest days of popular computing.

But once again, it is the Technical elite; the digital lords – those who created the world we live in – who remind us not to lose touch with our own humanity and to boil it down to education – not to forget the power of the pen.

There has been a spate of reporting the past few months on the value of the fully computerized schoolroom. Do students learn more? The same? Less? than their counterparts in – shudder the thought – traditional schools (keep media and companies in mind too).

Guess which it is?

Depending on the source it’s either inconclusive or less – but not more – HMMM….

Now here is the killer and why we had better pay attention.

The Silicon Valley Digerati are sending their children to a school that has no computers – not one in the school and they don’t want their students using them at home either. In fact the school’s philosophy is that computers inhibit “creative thinking, movement, human interaction and attention spans.”

Called The Waldorf School – whose philosophy of teaching is about a century old – the branch in the Valley is just one of around 160 in the U.S. and any number of emulators.

“I fundamentally reject the notion you need technology aides in grammar school,” said Alan Eagle, a senior executive at Google whose children attend the school. Alan has written speeches for Eric Schmidt.

The school teaches the fundamentals and it teaches them creatively using tactile methods and creating fun, irresistible, engaging programs around everything from fractions – taught by cutting and eating fruit – to language – taught by coordinating body and mind.

But it wasn’t just the school that caught my attention – it was the comments by the Digital parents – representing the best companies in Silicon Valley.

Check this one out – “Engagement is about human contact, the contact with the teacher, the contact with their peers,” this quote from a Microsoft/Intel veteran, Pierre Laurent, who works at a high-tech start-up.

Here is a killer – when asked if his children might be behind if they don’t learn digital skills from the cradle. Eagle commented, “It’s supereasy. It’s like learning to use toothpaste. At Google and all those places we make technology as brain-dead easy to use as possible. There’s no reason why kids can’t figure it out when they get older.”

Interestingly enough the kids from Waldorf complain that when they socialize with other kids or are around adults who are wrapped up in their devices, they get frustrated as the device mob is so self-absorbed and oblivious.

Bottom line – this not a screed against digital – au contraire – I’m paying homage to the people I consider to be in the digital leadership of the world – and I’m suggesting we take a lesson – borrow a page – open our eyes.

It has long been my contention that humanity will always triumph – see the terminator….

I have written before about our need for people insight; for off-line observations and up-close and intimate connectivity.

The movie here is that the rest of us become device dependent – while the children of those who made us dependent learn to function in the real world; learn to focus on creative problem solving; learn to appreciate and understand the world and what makes it work – then one day – someone pulls the plug…guess who rules? Maybe I should sell the script.

Seriously, I really do believe this is the most important article I have read in a while and its implications are mind blowing.

Wake-up call!!!!

Listen to the following – from the very beginning of the age we are in:

“All of the books in the world contain no more information than is broadcast as video in a single large American city in a single year. Not all bits have equal value.” Carl Sagan

Not all bits have equal value. Clearly not all education does either. Nor anything, for that matter, that could benefit from human face-to-face interaction.

Let me end with a quote from a 10-year-old whose father works at Google:

“If you learn to write on paper, you can still write if water spills on the computer or the power goes out.”

I don’t know about you – but I’m not throwing out my dog-eared copy of Cyrano just yet.

What do you think?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by David on 10/24 at 05:36 PM