Archive for the ‘Thoughts’ Category

Monday, November 28th, 2011

What is the Weather Next Week?

What is the weather next week?
Who do you think will win the championship?
Where will I get the best return on my investment?

Call them forecasts.
Call them calculated guesses.
Call them prophecy.

Call them what you will, but the field of statistical probability is complex and 50/50 is rarely what it seems.

I am always mystified by the outrage and surprise at the latest Wall Street Scandal of the day. Outside of the clear frauds and pyramid schemes and such – when a big firm crashes the excuse is always “market forces” – we zigged…they zagged. In other words a 50/50 bet…at best.

We do our best to forecast – as do our clients – and then countries go blooie and our bets get screwy.

Same with social forces. Look at the various Springs of this year – read the optimistic reports from the field and read the news and commentary today – not many got it right – 50/50? Not close.

What about elections? Anyone want to predict the US outcome?

And yet we still pretend that we can – we pontificate – we  preach – we go on and on about what is and what will be…and frankly? We don’t have an effin clue.

Listen:

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Niels Bohr

So bottom line – are you ready to predict? Anything?

Here is a paragraph from an article I read on predicting sports events…

“The odds of surviving Russian roulette are better: 1 in 64, provided you get to the last empty chamber. (If you continue to play, you still have better odds of survival doing it another half-dozen times). You’d be better off betting that you will roll snake eyes on a pair of dice – 10 times in a row.

In fact, there is a better chance of getting hit with a meteor or killed by hail (which happens to one in every 5 million people).

You are billions of times more likely to bowl a 300 game (about 1 in 11,000), win an Olympic gold medal (1 in 662,000) or get a royal flush in a five-card poker hand (1 in 649,739).”

There is a reason Las Vegas exists and the casinos of the world are flush with cash.

So what’s the lesson?

Always take the shot…the gamble…you have to be in it to win it…when the prize is real – when the stakes make sense…but lets lose the officious, dogmatic crap that sounds good in conferences and in trade pubs but is no better at the end of the day than throwing darts.

Our business and personal lives will be the better for the betting on positive futures where hard work and focus can make the odds work in our behalf and the better for letting go of ethereal, ephemeral guessing that at the end of the day – makes no real difference if we end up right or wrong.

What do you think?

Posted by David on 11/28 at 05:07 PM
Monday, November 14th, 2011

Ever Fall On Your Sword?

Ever fall on your sword?

Silly question…if you had, in its historic sense, you wouldn’t be reading this…

But maybe you know someone who has…?

If you have been using the idiom like I do – it connotes believing in an idea so fiercely, so passionately that you would do anything – anything – to see it fulfilled.  And – funnily enough – it’s usually used to infer what won’t happen – as in: “Some big idea – he won’t fall on his sword for it”; or, “Are you nuts????? Do you think I’d fall on my sword for that?” Rarely have I heard – “Oh my God, what an amazing session – she was ready to fall on her sword to sell her thinking.”

Turns out the original usage was centered around accountability. Predating the Japanese tradition, it was the ultimate expression of assuming liability for a screw up.  I imagine if you did it – no one would question the fact that it was your f— up and, by extension, no one else could be blamed – passionate management…if a little final.

In its current usage it’s also about accountability…of sorts. Of sorts I say, because I’m not sure if the stakes are quite the same.

When you think about my example above – “…he won’t fall on his sword for it,” the connotation is that someone won’t take accountability for an idea rather than the older usage denoting accountability for an action (or even an inaction) that had some greater effect in the world – most likely negative.

Now – I’m all about passion – and believe that no idea gets to see the light of day without it – but ideas are, at their best, living, growing things – the best ones don’t stop growing because it’s mine or yours – au contraire – they get better and better as they get shared and built on.

And so the question – would you fall on your sword for your idea?

Listen:

“To be willing to die for an idea is to set a rather high price on conjecture.” Anatole France

Now – let’s be clear before the stones are thrown – I get that ideas like freedom ignite a different set of passions – I’m not talking about that kind of sacrifice….

The way I see it – we live in a world where the ability to think, to speculate, to imagine – has never been greater and where the reward for success in dreaming has never been bigger.

Let me be clear again – I don’t mean speculation like Jon Corzine – no doubt many would like to see him fall on his sword – and, in fact, a good part of the 99% movement revolves around the notion that no one has yet fallen on their swords in accountability or contrition for economic speculation…your call if you think he/they should.

But as we envision, as we conceive and innovate – it seems to me that Anatole has the right idea.

Be passionate – very passionate – but choose your sword falling wisely….and its corollary – what are you willing to kill for….

“The one serious conviction that a man should have is that nothing is to be taken too seriously.” Nicholas Butler

Imagine how much better the world would be….

What’s your view?

By the way, if you should insist on the sword…:

http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/HowTo:Fall_on_your_sword

 

 

 

Posted by David on 11/14 at 03:21 PM
Monday, October 31st, 2011

Is Shakespeare any less The Bard if I read it on my iPad 2 in the Kindle App?

Is Shakespeare any less The Bard if I read him on my iPad 2 in the Kindle app?

Is Game of Thrones any less TV if I watch it in my hotel room in Barcelona on my laptop via Slingbox?

Is The King’s Speech any less of a movie if I enjoy it with my friends using my Xbox LIVE Netflix account to stream it to the Big Screen in my living room?

Are the Doors any less of a Band or is their music somehow diminished because I created a Doors channel on Pandora, bought some cuts on iTunes and right now am listening to it on my Internet radio?

Bottom line…we continue to have the wrong arguments and discussion.

It’s time we let the technology wash over us; become transparent; fact of life.

It’s time we stopped obsessing over feeds, speeds and screens.

What is clear is that people still demand and expect great content.

What is clear is that they still enjoy reading, watching and listening to great, entertaining, educational, informational, emotional, mind-bending words, images and music.

Frankly – it is so last century to believe that revolutions are driven by technology. Here is the truth – they are driven by people – just ask the 99%’ers.

Sure they use technology – but what revolutionaries in history didn’t use the technology they could – see the Guillotine….

Bottom line – listen – see last week – and listen:

“Men have become the tools of their tools.”  Henry David Thoreau

And there you have it from two centuries ago…

Tools enable – it’s what pulled us from the primal goop and differentiated us from the rest of the organisms inhabiting our little planet.

People. People are what make the difference…let’s not lose sight of where the power really is and where the future lies.

What do you think?

Posted by David on 10/31 at 03:21 PM