Archive for March, 2013

Monday, March 25th, 2013

Zynga Farms Its Own Future

Remember Zynga?

In June of 2009, they launched FarmVille on Facebook, had 10 million+ active users daily in only six weeks, and on that trajectory went public with huge pre-launch hype on December 16, 2011 – opening at $10 a share, hitting a high of $14.50 in March of 2012, and today trading under $3.50 a share and not yet making a profit.

Last week, Zynga and Facebook distanced themselves – one from the other – with the upshot being that Zynga wants to build its own dot-com and Facebook can now produce its own games.

So much to comment on here I could have Ramble material for a month or more…

  • Who has the better shot? Facebook in creating games or Zynga in creating yet another social platform – and their plan is to do just that.
  • Compare their stock market performance; analyze the analyst hype before they went public…and after; see what they say now – amazing how the analysts are always right….

Truth is – I don’t want to bash them – in fact, I have growing respect for them as they fight back from the digibabble morass they got thrown into (and to be fair, were happy to drown in). Look how much the founders made even as the company makes no “money” and begins to deal with the real world and real world needs.

They have expanded their view of the world – and I imagine they were the ones who amended Wikipedia as follows: “The company develops social games that work stand-alone on mobile phone platforms such as Apple iOS and Android and on the Internet through its website, Zynga.com, and social networking websites such as Facebook, Google+, and Tencent.”

More interesting – as far as I’m concerned – they are also turning their best sellers into board games – physical…buy in a box/open in your home…play face-to-face with friends…honest to God, old-fashioned traditional board games.

And, by the way, board games are selling.

Bottom line – Zynga has followed the content – if you will. Sometimes it ends up on Facebook, sometimes in stand-alone use on a smartphone, and occasionally on a kitchen table or living room floor.

They have a long way to go – selling virtual goods just doesn’t cut it: advertising isn’t enough and the board games won’t get their stock price going – but maybe – just maybe – if they can really cut themselves loose from all the digibabble hype – they will create real value for their investors and continue to delight their users.

I’m rooting for you, Zynga – keep following that content – and keep it as fluid as it is…Listen:

“Follow the customer, if they change…we change.” Sir Terry Leahy, Chief Executive, Tesco plc

And the content leads you right to the customer….

See what I mean?

What do you think?

  • A hundred and one variables for both companies, but this could ultimately be a win-win. Zynga's success will be determined by the quality of their output, and with no built-in Facebook audience they're going to have to step up their game. I like the idea that they are diversifying their distribution platforms, while still sticking to what they do best, ...
Monday, March 18th, 2013

Remember Cell Phones?

Do you remember cell phones?

We used to use them to make calls….

Today we have smartphones.  We use them to communicate, but also to take pictures, consume content, play games, buy and sell stuff, find our way, store data and get advertised to….

We pontificate on mobile – it’s here! Its time has come! It’s the future…you know the drill.

Frankly, it’s a lot of digibabble – and I thought it might be interesting to do a little archeological digging and uncover the roots of this “new and amazing” trend, so that we can burst the digibabble and really get to its power and possibility.

Where to begin?

How about with this….

WE ARE MOBILE…LIFE IS MOBILE…THE WORLD EXISTS BECAUSE OF MOBILITY….

If you begin everything with the Bible – the first mobility began with Adam and Eve getting thrown out of the Garden of Eden.  You can imagine the scene:

God: Get out—

Adam (maybe Eve, not clear): OK big guy, but how are we going to stay in touch and find our way around?  You try and get an iPhone out there….

For those with a more historical bent – here is what Wikipedia says:

“Pre-historical migration of human populations began with the movement of Homo erectus out of Africa across Eurasia about a million years ago. Homo sapiens appear to have colonized all of Africa about 150 millennia ago, moved out of Africa some 80 millennia ago, and spread across Eurasia and to Australia before 40 millennia ago. Migration to the Americas took place about 20 to 15 millennia ago, and by 1 millennium ago, all the Pacific Islands were colonized. Later population movements notably include the Neolithic revolution and Indo-European expansion, part of which emerges in the earliest historic records.”

And that was only the beginning – there were great migrations in medieval times (despite the common thinking that there wasn’t); there were the Ages of Exploration and Colonialism and, of course, we have seen the modern-day migrations to urban centers and then back out again and then back in again and then back…you get the picture.

We have seen the explosion of populations and commuting through traffic jams and work forces covering distances that were once prohibitive, and the advent of relatively cheap, safe and efficient travel (wishful thinking).

And all of the above suggests a mobility that is in our DNA – core to our being – part of the human experience and critical to what has shaped and will continue to shape the world.

In a paper written in 1997 for the MIT Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, the following prediction was made:

“Today, world citizens move 23 billion km in total; by 2050 that figure grows to 105 billion.”

INSIGHT – Oh My God – people are mobile…what an opportunity….

Now let’s move on to devices…whatever you call them.

Interestingly, car phones existed in the 1930s and anyone who has ever studied the newspaper and radio drama culture of the United States in the 1930s knows that the famous Police Detective Dick Tracy used a watch phone actually introduced in 1946….

However – where you and I enter the story is on April 3, 1973, when Martin Cooper – considered the “father of the cell phone” – demonstrated the practicality of the device by making the first street call of its type ever outside the Hilton Hotel in Manhattan:

“As I walked down the street while talking on the phone, sophisticated New Yorkers gaped at the sight of someone actually moving around while making a phone call. Remember that in 1973, there weren’t cordless telephones, let alone cellular phones. I made numerous calls, including one where I crossed the street while talking to a New York radio reporter – probably one of the more dangerous things I have ever done in my life.”

It’s a great story and worth reading – and it’s equally interesting to look at the phone and its size – like a brick – and contemplate the issues of battery life. Some things never change….

The digibabble buster is simple – Cooper changed the way we make calls because we now call person to person – and not place to place.  He didn’t just stumble on this by accident – he understood the human need and in an interview with CNN many years later, he said:

“…the personal telephone – something that would represent an individual, so you could assign a number not to a place, not to a desk, not to a home, but to a person. People want to talk to other people – not a house, or an office, or a car. Given a choice, people will demand the freedom to communicate wherever they are, unfettered by the infamous copper wire. It is that freedom we sought to vividly demonstrate in 1973.”

And there you have it – the biggest insight of all – written about today as if it’s new and unique to our times and way too often linked to pronouncements and articles and unveilings of all kinds, most of which I’d argue miss the essential – it’s personal – not as in I have your data and I can send you an ad – but personal as in it’s mine as a person.

Phones got smaller; batteries got better – phones got bigger again; batteries got worse – we added more features, more functionality, more confusion.

We call everything that can move “mobile,” really meaning the phone and forgetting about everything else, but make little distinction between usage – and talk screens, not “person.”

The real mobile innovators, such as the Human Dynamics Lab at MIT, are using phone data to predict human mobility – to help you know when you might get sick and to uncover deep physiological insights into behavior – they get it – and they use the term cell phone – no digibabble….

Listen:

“One should use common words to say uncommon things.” Arthur Schopenhauer

Help me!

What do you think?

Monday, March 11th, 2013

Dancing with Mars…?

Survivors.

Business.

Crazy stunts.

Questionable talent.

Facing fears.

Dancing.

Singing.

Sex.

Garbage.

Cars.

Models.

Faux celebrities.

Weight loss.

You name it – there is “Reality TV” programming around it.

Video; web; mobile; print – Omni-Channel…the latest babble term.

And yes – full confession – I am as guilty as any of dipping in. Participating. Imbibing the brew. Mesmerized while I ask out loud, how could anyone watch this trash…

And by the way – I point out to all those who struggle to monetize the various “digital” lives, game changing and platforms – all are supported by – yes – advertising – and all are – heavens – TV (across all screens…get it?) based.

However – all pale into insignificance…seriously…in light of the most audacious Reality TV idea I have seen yet – and that is to send a group of people to Mars by 2023.

To be fair – we are already acquainted with commercial space travel – Richard Branson of Virgin inspired us with this vision long ago – while SpaceX and other companies have expanded the field and the vision. By the way – it will all happen.

But Bas Lansdorp has gone a step further – and tapped into the global psyche for total voyeurism so brilliantly chronicled in The Truman Show – “One point seven billion were there for his birth. 220 countries tuned in for his first step. The world stood still for that stolen kiss. And as he grew, so did technology. An entire human life – recorded on an intricate network of hidden cameras and broadcasted live and uninterrupted 24 hours a day, seven days a week, to an audience around the globe.”

Bas, a Dutch engineer and entrepreneur, plans to create a “worldwide, multiyear reality television show” that would begin with the selection of the astronauts and chronicle every detail of their mission and onwards, culminating in their establishment of a permanent settlement on Mars.

Bottom line, he calculates he needs US$6 billion to make this happen – and he cites the Olympics which, between 2009 and 2012, recorded some US$5 billion in revenue – almost four of which came from TV rights. And of course we know that Reality TV generates crazy profits for all the broadcasters. By the way – we haven’t even begun to discuss licensing….the T-shirts alone….

While some are skeptical of his goal of financing by broadcast right, I’d say he is onto something big – 600 million people (including me) watched Neil Armstrong land and walk on the moon – and that was on black and white and relatively small screens by today’s standards – if only NASA had sold that sponsorship….

Unfortunately, Lansdrop doesn’t want to be compared to the “Kardashians” – he wants to be viewed as more serious – but that cat is out of the bag – and by the way – we do take them seriously….

So there you have it – the latest advance in science and technology in our world – once again being fueled by…ADVERTISING…I love it…

So will it be successful? You tell me – but let me return to The Truman Show…listen:

Christof: Cue the sun!

However, I end with one caveat and the final Truman scene and the biggest warning to Bas…listen:

[Last lines]

Security Guard 1: You want another slice?

Security Guard 2: No, I’m OK.

Security Guard 1: What else is on?

Security Guard 2: Yeah, let’s see what else is on.

Security Guard 1: Where’s the TV guide?

And that’s when the sponsors run…so be ready with your own idea – the universe is the limit…and beyond….and the advertisers are waiting….

What do you think?