Archive for October, 2012

Monday, October 29th, 2012

We All Need Inspiration

I need inspiration – stories that excite my imagination, give me hope for the future and make clear just what we can accomplish when we set our minds to it.

Murder; terrorism; despotism; huge storms; the vagaries of the stock market; the latest, newest and greatest occupy our minds – and our searches – they are what trend – the 15 second or 15 gig (as my friend Bob Greenberg says) syndrome. And, frankly, they depress me.

Last week I wrote about short-term thinking and the effect on innovation, on people and on motivation because of the vagaries of financial markets whose rewards are based on that system.

This week, as I compiled my notes, I was struck by the trending global search info – Monster Storm bearing down on the US; iPad Mini; Windows 8 and Surface launch; Morgan Freeman – yes! But frankly I found nothing that inspired me – nothing that I really wanted to share – nothing that I hoped would make a point different than what you might have been reading or following or viewing.

Then I saw it and felt redeemed. No doubt you will be puzzled – why this story fueled my dreams; why this story fed my mind; why this story felt redeeming.

So here goes…

It’s the story of the SpaceX Dragon capsule that has completed its first scheduled (of 12) mission at the International Space Station (ISS) and will be returning to Earth starting Sunday – an event that can be watched on NASA TV – and is as exciting as a new James Bond movie.

So you are shaking your head – people are getting killed; people are starving; there is injustice and despotism – and this is what inspires you? Have you lost it????

Frankly – I’m tired of the elections in the US and all the discussion of online targeting and re-targeting when the bulk of the money – ungodly sums in fact are being spent on broadcast – and by broadcast I mean across all channels; I’m tired of the latest app being hailed as the next greatest thing only to go from hero to zero in weeks or days; I’m tired of endless discussion about technology that is really not technology at all – in fact, I had a discussion with an analyst recently who told me that Amazon Prime was the most innovative part of Amazon – check it out – best practice of catalog companies since Sears in the 1800s…

So bottom line – I was looking for something real – not another Internet monetization scheme; not the next and only way ever to connect with a friend, or meet someone or buy something. What I wanted was something that would make me look beyond admiration for a business plan and a huge valuation; something that would induce discussion beyond the usual do you think it’s overpriced or undervalued – something that would cause me to look up and out – daydream a bit and wonder about the possibilities and the future.

And there you have it – The SpaceX Dragon – private enterprise at its best. Tackling the “final frontier” – proving that space is an option and that governments do not need to be in control…

I looked up and out – literally as this turns out … and my imagination runs wild to the Asimov and Heinlein of my youth (confession – I still read them) and I must say – at least for me the change from the debate on the viability of Zynga as the gamification change platform of all time is not just refreshing – it’s downright spiritual.

Listen:

“Imagination is everything. It is the preview of life’s coming attractions.” Albert Einstein

Einstein wrote a lot about imagination – he believed in it – it was a part of his “religion” of thinking – it drove his thinking.

And to him – imagination wasn’t the next release of Angry Birds (don’t get me wrong, I love it) but where we were going in the cosmos.

So if you are like me – if you accept as a given where the world is today – meaning that there is no debate about what is digital or not; meaning that yes you love tablets and want to consume and create; meaning that you watch “content” on big screens, little screens and in-between screens; meaning that you want more to hang your dreams on – find your own SpaceX…

And when you find it – share it! We all need the need inspiration…at least I do…

What do you think?

 

Posted by David on 10/29 at 06:26 PM
Monday, October 22nd, 2012

Short-Term Thinking

You would have thought it was the Titanic all over again – in fact, the imagery is apt….

I am referring to the October 18 earnings release of Google that temporarily caused them to halt trading of their stock and lowered their price per share by as much as 11% on that fateful day.

There are so many levels to this story….

For a while Google’s value fell below that of Microsoft, after having passed them earlier in the month – a shocker, no doubt, to the analysts who think MSFT is old and worn.

One reason for the drop is that the market doesn’t like “surprises,” and analysts consider anything that doesn’t track with their dart-throwing predictions to be a surprise.

Of course the real surprise here is that a computer glitch (how ironic) caused the earnings release to be distributed early, without warning, and it was in draft form as well – no doubt adding to the feeling of OIY.

The acquisition of Motorola is a current drain – at a $12.4 billion buying price the market expected more of a return and, of course, was counting on a magic Harry Potter bounce for Google Mobile.

But let’s be clear…surprise or not – early or not – the numbers are the numbers and the panic that ensued, with all of its resident hoopla and expert punditry, is what’s wrong with the market – short-term thinking driven by short-term profit takers with short-term memories and a short-term commitment to anything.

Had they really understood the dynamics, they would have known that “search” is under siege – not that it’s going away – far from it.  It’s just that certain information can be found more easily in other places and through other means, including Amazon and soon, maybe, Facebook. And at the end of the day – as the true value of clicks becomes more and more clear – prices will be going more and more down.

Bottom line – Google is just getting going.  Its value to you and me is no less or more than it was before October 18.  The financial community will no doubt wring their hands for a bit, but so what – to those of us who are users, it is they who are the issue – not Google.  Do not limit the ability of this company or any company to innovate, evolve and develop by demanding results that have no basis in reality other than your own spreadsheets.

Mark Zuckerberg is no stranger to this kind of activity – he constantly talks about being in the game for the long term and had this to say in an interview in Forbes:

“We go through these waves. At times everyone thinks what we’re doing is awesome and I think it’s too optimistic. At times when people are super pessimistic, I personally – maybe it’s a perverse thing – I’d rather be in a cycle where people underestimate us. It gives us latitude to go out and make big bets and excite and amaze people.”

So if you lost value in your Google holdings I am sorry – but if you are a Google user or a Microsoft fan or a Facebook junkie – take heart: it’s just starting to get interesting….

“We need to see our work on innovation as involving disciplined practice, not the quest for short-term wins. This is an obvious problem in our instant-gratification, quarterly-earnings-based culture in which corporate managers (and politicians) are evaluated and rewarded based on their success at maintaining a continuous upward trend that produces immediate results. At times, it seems like the question ‘What have you done for me lately’ approaches the status of a business model. If resource allocation, decision-making processes, and career-path planning all obey a short-term logic, while the important challenges facing both organizations and society are mostly long term, isn’t the disconnect obvious?” John Kao

A final thought – listen:

“When you feel the impossibility of really thinking about the ten thousand year horizon, you’ve got to access that part in each of us which knows that the rational calculation is not the only reason we do things.  We celebrate doing things that are plainly irrational—loving our children, loving our country, loving our planet—even though we’ll never see any of those things come to the perfection we imagine.” Larry Lessig

And that to me is the key – who knows where Google will end up? Who knows if we will all be shopping only at Amazon, making friends only through Facebook and talking to each other only through Skype – chances are we won’t, but who cares? The ride is amazing and the view gets better and better – short-term thinking is pursuit of some rational rationale by short-term thinkers – never by real innovators.

Celebrate your irrationality and enjoy what you experience – it gets better and better.

What do you think?

 

 

Posted by David on 10/22 at 06:00 PM
Monday, October 15th, 2012

We Live in Uncertain Times

We live in uncertain times….

No joke…

In fact we live in the Age of Beta – we never know what’s going to work or not…but we take the plunge and update our Apps as they come – and by Apps I mean even our “Lifeapps”…that is, relationships, philosophies, ideas.

So why do we accept the uncertainty of the latest iPhone, Microsoft or Angry Birds release and yet many obsess at work or in relationships because of a perceived lack of clarity? We limit our ability to perform, innovate or transform because of fear of failure – again linked to uncertainty and absence of clarity.

(More on The Uncertainty Principle here)

Now – none of us would want to live in a feudal society (unless you were King…), but there was little uncertainty – chances were you could starve to death or be killed on some whim – but you knew your place and knew it was where you belonged. And in highly structured hierarchical societies and companies it’s much the same…it’s good to be King – and, yes, you know your place and there is clarity – for sure – but BORING…LIMITING…and probably little or no innovation and – by the way – they ultimately fail.

So how do we as a society break out? How do we – even in the absence of full clarity – give people the opportunity to excel through experimentation and innovation – how do we limit the fear and maximize the Beta?

Esther Dyson (thank you, Esther!!!) gave me the clue last week when she shared the following thought with me: A good leader absorbs uncertainty…whereas a manager simply distributes it.

Think about it – absorbing uncertainty to me means being accountable – letting others know that there is no blame, no finger pointing, no deflection of failure. That to me is true leadership.

Distributing uncertainty means that you look to hedge the bet on failure. You are looking for others to be lined up along the blame wall – that is not leadership.

Why do we accept beta releases – imperfect forms – from some? Because they have the credibility of accountability. We know Apple and Microsoft will make it right; we know that they will stand behind their product.

The Graveyards of Failed Enterprises are filled with the remains of those who didn’t absorb the uncertainty but rather ignored or shared it. The ground is littered with the detritus of relationships where uncertainty ruled. Lack of leadership leads to rampant uncertainty, and rampant uncertainty leads to certain failure.

Listen:

“The quest for certainty blocks the search for meaning. Uncertainty is the very condition to impel man to unfold his powers.” Erich Fromm

Think on this – because I think it takes the idea to another dimension. A true leader absorbs uncertainty – meaning that they don’t necessarily create clarity. To the contrary, they make uncertainty OK – they make it a condition of positive development; they unleash the full opportunity inherent in uncertainty – ergo, allowing us all to develop our true power.

So if you are in a company or in a relationship or are contemplating the why of it all – if you really want meaning – be a leader – absorb the fear of the unknown – accept the full accountability for the journey and my sense is that you and your quest will flourish.

And if you can’t…if you are unable to make that leap…link yourself; hitch your wagon to someone who can…don’t get blocked – unfold….

One last thought – also from Fromm – but to me completes the thought.

Listen:

“Critical and radical thought will only bear fruit when it is blended with the most precious quality man is endowed with – the love of life.”

Think on that – I believe that love of life is what gives us the strength to absorb the unknown…and the more we absorb and the more we discover, the richer the lives we lead…

What do you think?

Posted by David on 10/15 at 04:47 PM
  • I love this. uncertainty is great especially if people are willing to give it a go. when we think we can minimize the risk, we become paralyzed. I have always heard that since there is no control the only way to feel it is to let it go.
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    Posted by Belle on 2012-10-16 18:26:59
  • Good question -- and not sure of the answer -- I think there is another layer -- which uncertainty? Is there an absolute -- a "truth" if you will about uncertainty? can even uncertainty be spun?
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    Posted by david Sable on 2012-10-16 13:24:51
  • What a pleasure these blogs provide! I love the mots justes you unearth and the quotes, and your ability to weave them into a discussion that is both uplifting and challenging. I wonder how people would feel if they applied the Esther principle to the current election campaign: I think Mr Romney practices the rhetoric of certainty whilst distributing ...
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    Posted by Edna Kissmann on 2012-10-15 17:43:44