Archive for February, 2012

Monday, February 27th, 2012

The World Was Coming To An End

The world was coming to an end!!!!

But what world?

So asked Ray Bradbury in his early 1950s short story “The Highway,” through the voice of a poor rural farmer watching city folk frantically drive by his home as they sought to escape the doom. He in turn calmly plowed his fields, wondering what they were going on about.

I read the story as a teen – feeling it was very subversive – and forgot about it until the first time I came to China in the mid 1980s.

In those days – China was just beginning to open and your “guide,” usually with a Western name like Michael Jackson and actually a security service person, would watch you like a hawk and never let you alone for a moment.

There were few cars on the road – everything was drab and old – and the sense of oppression lingered wherever you went.

Yet, even pre-boom – I had an experience on that trip that was like a religious revelation – it changed my thinking and gave me an awareness and appreciation that I continue to hold to this day.

The driver stopped for me to admire a view and take some pictures. It was a pastoral scene – as far as the eye could see there was nothing but rice paddies – no power lines, no buildings, no skylines – nothing – nada – zero.

However, there was one more thing – there were peasant farmers walking through the paddies, back and forth, with their conical hats and water buffalo.

And there it was – “The Highway” made real.  The world had changed – was changing and would change even more – yet those people had been walking back and forth like that for thousands of years – What wars? What advances? What nuclear threat?

I realized then the power of China – eternal – rooted in the past – with no fear of the future.

I write this from Beijing – toward the end of a week spent in China.

What a change – now there are not only cars, but BMWs, Mercedes, you name it, and massive traffic jams.

Every major luxury retailer is here in force, and as I walked to the Forbidden City, Tiananmen Square and the National Museum – I was struck by the fashion diversity of the crowds – they could have been from anywhere – and the open and friendly manner of all – not to mention the aggressive entrepreneurship of the many young artists and would-be tourist guides. And no one was watching us – in fact, we were the only Westerners in the museum.

What a place – they have their own Facebook called Renren (formerly known as the Xiaonei Network), their own Google called Baidu, and even though it’s not perfect – 80/20 is good enough for now and they know how to move on.

Do you want to feel humble? As awed as we are in the West with Facebook and its big numbers – there are more smartphone subscribers in China than Facebook has members globally.  Makes you think – no? And none of them use Facebook….

It’s a place that is eager to learn.  I recently read that Panda Express, the largest Chinese-restaurant chain in the U.S., is considering expanding into China and that entrepreneurs in Beijing are trying to market American “Chinese” food to the local Chinese. Get that. They are bringing back to China what other cultures have tried and adapted as their own, curious to see how the locals will react to the American taste of their cuisine.

What about the other way around?  Will the next thing we see be the export of a Chinese burger place to the U.S.?

The energy – the power – the positive can-do attitude – the optimism – makes you realize just how closed off people in the West are – or can be.  And best of all – no hatred or jealousy of the West – to the contrary, it’s a place to catch back up with – and then surpass. And remember, civilization here was far advanced in the late BCs and early ADs – often way beyond the West.

Which leads me to my POV – being in the museum reminded me – listen:

“Study the past if you would define the future.”
Confucius

It’s that simple. The world needs to take a lesson. The region is booming because they get it. When others speak of doom and gloom – they ask where? And get on with it – not quarter by quarter, but with a long-term view.

Let’s be clear – this is far from Utopia – but what isn’t?

I contrast this with events in the Middle East where a look back is as glorious in terms of accomplishment as it is here in China. Science, poetry, exploration and even the rich melding of varied points of view and populations. However, that look backward is not defining the future – far from it…

But here’s the thing – around the world, many continue to reject what was – as if the future just happens, as if it’s a random set of occurrences – we see it in the GMOOT philosophy that many follow:  Give Me One Of Those – as if nothing else ever existed – nothing to learn from or build on.  Wake up – learn from the experts….

What do you think?

 

Monday, February 20th, 2012

20 Teen

20 teenage girls are exhibiting signs of Tourette’s like symptoms in a rural New York State small town and the world’s media have descended on this hamlet like it’s the site of the second coming (or pick your own religious rapture moment).

They call it a medical mystery; they have tried to involve Erin Brockovich – once played by Julia Roberts in the movie Erin Brockovich – a legal investigator who has made millions for others in similar hamlets who had the bad luck of being near chemical spill sites or other manmade disasters caused by companies who cared little for the “little people”.

It has been blamed on the Internet; on Facebook; on too much texting and talking – on loose morals –Of course loose morals… what else could it be…

They have looked for signs of PANDA – pediatric autoimmune infection and they have prayed for the girls.

On the other hand, it was good for the local economy – all those content hounds spent money.

Questions persist – but Mass Hysteria seems to be the clearest theory…and of course the specialists are weighing in on its rarity and point us all back to media and social networking for making it all the worse.

Hello-o!

Has no one ever heard of the Salem Witch Trials in what is now the Eastern United States in the 1600’s or read the Hawthorne novel The Scarlet Letter – don’t think Facebook was around then…

What about the Dancing Plague in Medieval Europe (see case #1 here) when large groups of people, sometimes thousands at a time, danced uncontrollably? Historical documents report the dancing originated from one woman dancing on the streets…which led to a dancing mania including screaming, shouting, and singing. Participants claimed to have had visions or hallucinations…and some died from exhaustion.

Don’t think that Twitter spread that one….

Or…what about the cotton mill prank in Northern England in the 18th century – one worker put a mouse in another woman’s dress causing the woman to fall into convulsions.  A rumor began – that the convulsions were caused by an open bag of imported cotton – and the other factory workers began experiencing severe violent convulsions. The factory had to temporarily shut down because so many had been “infected”.

Similar stories emerge from every corner of the world. In present day Tanzania, near the border of Kenya, the Tanganyika laughter epidemic of 1962 is believed to have originated in a school classroom, perpetuated by the children and parents who then transmitted it to the surrounding area. Other schools in other villages, comprising thousands of people, were all affected in the same way.

And, let’s not forget the stain on the US of McCarthyism in the 1950’s and of course in Germany with Nazism in the 30’s and 40’s (“a response to the belief that Germany was suffering from an acute disease”) – both having elements of Mass Hysteria and imagine both – I shudder – in the digital age….

My point is that we are at an inflection moment – and that maybe this is just one small example of the issue.

Not everything is a result of our digital world. Sure, in this case, digital channels make it easier to spread the story globally and of course with speed – but in their day – the other incidents made their way around as well.

Coveting a new life style with no way to fulfill it; winds of change causing fear; get me out of here I’m suffocating; stress because my local society demands adherence to the old; tics and twitching for some…violence and death for others – sound familiar?

Look at any news feed – any day – 24/7 and count the number of stories that fit the above scenarios and open any history book that details those inflection eras and you will find more of the same.

The dichotomy of our particular inflection point is that while we come together, in unprecedented numbers, in networks like Facebook – the notion that we have become a smaller more cohesive world is belied by the silos being created by the very same and powerful tools by those who are exploiting them for evil and as bad by those who limit or forbid their use for the very same reasons.

Never have we had more potential for good and for bad. Never have we been able to harness technology to do so much for and so much against humanity.

So once again – maybe the issue isn’t technology – much like it isn’t physical aliment.

Listen:

“A bodily disease, which we look upon as whole and entire within itself, may, after all, be but a symptom of some ailment in the spiritual part.”
- The Scarlet Letter, Nathaniel Hawthorne

Maybe – just maybe – it’s time to look at our lives; take stock; take a step back – and look for solutions that don’t have magic in them; that aren’t contingent upon the next big thing; or reliant on digital connectivity vs. human connection….

And then maybe we can use the power that we have been given to do great things like cure disease and end war…and those girls at LeRoy High School in Upstate New York can go back to posting and texting without twitching and ticing……

What do you think?

 

  • Remember, correlation does not mean causation. I hope the girls can get the help they need. Who knows... maybe the story being published online will lead to more doctors researching and discovering a cure.
  • Real Tourettes is as you say -- thsi was proved not to be -- you are right we need a cure -- and by using teh real power we have it can be acheived/
  • "maybe the issue isn’t technology – much like it isn’t physical aliment." Agree wholeheartedly with the first part of this statement, but i pray you're wrong on the second part even though the odds in the case of the young girls upstate are against it. As the father of a child with Tourettes I have always suspected the link between ...
Monday, February 13th, 2012

Amazon? Google? Who Would Have Thunk?

Who would have thunk….

Google is going to have a physical bricks-and-mortar – old-fashioned – GPS-findable – swipe- your-credit-card-or-pay-cash – salespeople to help you – store!

IMAGINE THAT!!!!

What are they going to sell?

Check out the Google online store to get an idea.  The top 10 items?  Chotchkes!!!!  Baby bibs and T-shirts!  And as you can see by the map – there doesn’t even seem to be a regional or local skew!  HMMMMMMM.

Now to be fair – they also had a small retail presence selling Chrome laptops — the Chromebook – not particularly successful, but they made a go of it.

Apple Stores need no big introduction – if you haven’t been in one, you should.  Great service – open 24/7 – like the Web – and a great place to play and demo.

Microsoft has also entered the fray – and although nascent by comparison to Apple – their retail empire is expanding.

eBay has also joined the game – and there is a thriving business of eBay drop-off stores that provide services to prospective sellers. …and by the way…they’ve also started advertising…god for bid…on TV.

And now Amazon – already big in mail – a powerhouse in cloud – is also looking to own the avenue….

What does this all mean? Is digital losing steam? Can it be that as Facebook goes public the rest of the world regresses?

In my view? It’s all very simple….

Digital is everything – but not everything is digital.  I will repeat that – digital is everything – but not everything is digital.

We place orders for food online and have it delivered to our office or home; we order clothing online and wear it…in real time; we buy movie tickets – movie tickets! – with our mobile devices and actually sit in theaters munching popcorn with the masses; we stream or save or otherwise access video content and view it on all sorts of screens – God forbid we mistake that for TV; we check for purchase information online – we check price and inventory live in our neighborhoods – and then buy the stuff and carry it home; and on and on and on….

Meanwhile Wal-Mart is trying to figure out how to sell through digital channels

Digital is everything – makes no difference today what we do, what we buy, what we want, what we believe – it all has some digital component – some digital foundation or infrastructure – some digital building blocks….

But here is the thing – not everything is digital.  We don’t eat digital or wear digital; digital doesn’t replace sitting around a big screen during a championship game with your buds; digital buying isn’t the same as being face-to-face with a fashion expert as you try on new clothing; and who cares if you call it TV – just give me my favorite show to watch.  Analysts and other so- called experts take note…please.

In my view the world is now really getting exciting – Wal-Mart moves toward Amazon moving toward Wal-Mart and Barnes and Noble, as Apple moves toward Best Buy who is moving toward Amazon – you get the picture.

Meanwhile you and I can still go to the movies….

So what’s it all about?

Listen?

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”
Charles Darwin

(FYI – I used this same quote almost four years ago…when the financial system was turned at its core …take a look…rules are always changing…)

Take note, all – it’s not the one that says all is changing – it’s the one that is the most adaptable to change – big difference.

Personally? Now it’s really getting interesting….

What do you think?