Archive for November, 2011

Monday, November 28th, 2011

What is the Weather Next Week?

What is the weather next week?
Who do you think will win the championship?
Where will I get the best return on my investment?

Call them forecasts.
Call them calculated guesses.
Call them prophecy.

Call them what you will, but the field of statistical probability is complex and 50/50 is rarely what it seems.

I am always mystified by the outrage and surprise at the latest Wall Street Scandal of the day. Outside of the clear frauds and pyramid schemes and such – when a big firm crashes the excuse is always “market forces” – we zigged…they zagged. In other words a 50/50 bet…at best.

We do our best to forecast – as do our clients – and then countries go blooie and our bets get screwy.

Same with social forces. Look at the various Springs of this year – read the optimistic reports from the field and read the news and commentary today – not many got it right – 50/50? Not close.

What about elections? Anyone want to predict the US outcome?

And yet we still pretend that we can – we pontificate – we  preach – we go on and on about what is and what will be…and frankly? We don’t have an effin clue.

Listen:

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Niels Bohr

So bottom line – are you ready to predict? Anything?

Here is a paragraph from an article I read on predicting sports events…

“The odds of surviving Russian roulette are better: 1 in 64, provided you get to the last empty chamber. (If you continue to play, you still have better odds of survival doing it another half-dozen times). You’d be better off betting that you will roll snake eyes on a pair of dice – 10 times in a row.

In fact, there is a better chance of getting hit with a meteor or killed by hail (which happens to one in every 5 million people).

You are billions of times more likely to bowl a 300 game (about 1 in 11,000), win an Olympic gold medal (1 in 662,000) or get a royal flush in a five-card poker hand (1 in 649,739).”

There is a reason Las Vegas exists and the casinos of the world are flush with cash.

So what’s the lesson?

Always take the shot…the gamble…you have to be in it to win it…when the prize is real – when the stakes make sense…but lets lose the officious, dogmatic crap that sounds good in conferences and in trade pubs but is no better at the end of the day than throwing darts.

Our business and personal lives will be the better for the betting on positive futures where hard work and focus can make the odds work in our behalf and the better for letting go of ethereal, ephemeral guessing that at the end of the day – makes no real difference if we end up right or wrong.

What do you think?

Posted by David on 11/28 at 05:07 PM
Monday, November 21st, 2011

Happy Birthday

Happy Birthday!!!!

Happy, Happy Birthday!!!!

In fact, Happy 224th Birthday, Louis!!!!!!

The Louis I refer to is Louis Daguerre – one of the founding fathers of photography and well- known artist in the Paris of his day. So famous was he in fact, that the French government considered him a gift to the world and his son was given a pension in recognition of his father’s contributions to the glory of the French Republic.

Daguerre was often seen around Paris with his “camera obscura,” a wooden box with a lens that projected the image he was looking at onto a frosted piece of glass. Many experiments later he perfected the process and the daguerreotype was born – each one a unique image on a sheet of silver-plated copper – most of which have sadly been lost to the world after a fire destroyed much of his early work in 1839.

While he wisely kept patents on his process – the truth is that he never innovated beyond his original invention. Much like the open platforms of today – he made it available to others who took it and ran – and innovated – for many years still calling the product daguerreotypes – and today we use our phones in homage to him…not really, but we should.

So why am I writing about Louis and his birthday?

Full disclosure – although I am a photography nut and have been since I learned to develop film and make prints back in the last century – and although I do have many books on photographic art and go to exhibits and have a friend who is a major collector – and although I have seen original daguerreotypes – I had no clue it was his birthday – worse, I had forgotten all about him.

It was Google who reminded me.

Not that I Googled him, mind you, but his birthday was the subject of Google’s home page doodle. Imagine that! The Mecca of all that is digital – paying homage to a guy who schlepped around a huge wooden box….

But what really struck me was that I had no clue who invented the digital camera. Not an inkling.

I knew Gutenberg and the printing press. I knew Marconi and Edison. Even David Sarnoff. Yet I had not an inkling about the digital camera. Worse, I had no curiosity.

But now I did. And here is what I found:

The first digital camera was built in 1975 by Steven Sasson, who was an engineer at Eastman Kodak. However, the camera was not very practical. The camera recorded black-and-white images on a cassette tape, had a resolution of just 0.01 megapixels and took about 23 seconds to capture an image.

The parallels to Daguerre were astounding. The process, its clunkiness, its evolution – it took another 15 years to make it commercial – were every bit the same story.

Yet we remember Louis – Google remembered Louis!!!! And I’m afraid we don’t do much to celebrate Steve.

Now one reason could be that we celebrate true invention, and evolution is an expected yawn. Or that in the age of digital, we are no longer wowed by what must have seemed like magic 224 years ago. Or perhaps we are just so jaded that we no longer get excited about much beyond the latest release of Angry Birds. Or maybe…just maybe…because we recognize that true art and/or human DNA knows what will be remembered.

That got me thinking and I found this thought. Listen:

“Long after our monuments of brick and stone, vitriol, plastic and concrete have vanished, our words, our art, our legends and our myths will remain as a legacy.” Harry J. Boyle

Think about it. We remember Edison for the phonograph – but how many of you remember who invented the Walkman? Or beyond Steve Jobs (an artist), who gets credit for the iPod?

I would add digital to the list of what will vanish – it will – one day it will be replaced with something better – a new magic –  but Louis Daguerre will still be remembered – as will Bill Gates and Steve Jobs – not because they innovated – but because they created – hence, artists.

Thank you Google!!! Keep it up and you will be one of those legends…..

What do you think?

Posted by David on 11/21 at 04:46 PM
Monday, November 14th, 2011

Ever Fall On Your Sword?

Ever fall on your sword?

Silly question…if you had, in its historic sense, you wouldn’t be reading this…

But maybe you know someone who has…?

If you have been using the idiom like I do – it connotes believing in an idea so fiercely, so passionately that you would do anything – anything – to see it fulfilled.  And – funnily enough – it’s usually used to infer what won’t happen – as in: “Some big idea – he won’t fall on his sword for it”; or, “Are you nuts????? Do you think I’d fall on my sword for that?” Rarely have I heard – “Oh my God, what an amazing session – she was ready to fall on her sword to sell her thinking.”

Turns out the original usage was centered around accountability. Predating the Japanese tradition, it was the ultimate expression of assuming liability for a screw up.  I imagine if you did it – no one would question the fact that it was your f— up and, by extension, no one else could be blamed – passionate management…if a little final.

In its current usage it’s also about accountability…of sorts. Of sorts I say, because I’m not sure if the stakes are quite the same.

When you think about my example above – “…he won’t fall on his sword for it,” the connotation is that someone won’t take accountability for an idea rather than the older usage denoting accountability for an action (or even an inaction) that had some greater effect in the world – most likely negative.

Now – I’m all about passion – and believe that no idea gets to see the light of day without it – but ideas are, at their best, living, growing things – the best ones don’t stop growing because it’s mine or yours – au contraire – they get better and better as they get shared and built on.

And so the question – would you fall on your sword for your idea?

Listen:

“To be willing to die for an idea is to set a rather high price on conjecture.” Anatole France

Now – let’s be clear before the stones are thrown – I get that ideas like freedom ignite a different set of passions – I’m not talking about that kind of sacrifice….

The way I see it – we live in a world where the ability to think, to speculate, to imagine – has never been greater and where the reward for success in dreaming has never been bigger.

Let me be clear again – I don’t mean speculation like Jon Corzine – no doubt many would like to see him fall on his sword – and, in fact, a good part of the 99% movement revolves around the notion that no one has yet fallen on their swords in accountability or contrition for economic speculation…your call if you think he/they should.

But as we envision, as we conceive and innovate – it seems to me that Anatole has the right idea.

Be passionate – very passionate – but choose your sword falling wisely….and its corollary – what are you willing to kill for….

“The one serious conviction that a man should have is that nothing is to be taken too seriously.” Nicholas Butler

Imagine how much better the world would be….

What’s your view?

By the way, if you should insist on the sword…:

http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/HowTo:Fall_on_your_sword

 

 

 

Posted by David on 11/14 at 03:21 PM